Your conclusion is unfortunately based on factual untruth and therefore not valid. Seeing as half the players will need to spend more than 1500 fusings to get a 6L (assuming the 1/1500 chance), this is another very serious mistake. Your calculation is further misled by stopping the sum after 1500 trials. You must compute sum(n pmf) (see comment † below). Sum(n cdf) is not the correct way to obtain the expected amount of trials needed for the event to happen. to get a 6-link within 1500 attempts than in 1 attempt". This is very incorrect and directly contradicts your assumption #3. " a player is about 63 times more likely to get a 6-link on their 1500th attempt than their first attempt". The chance to get a 6L from using a fuse is more than 1/1500, even more so with quality.
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